USAHAWAN UNIT TRUST PUBLIC MUTUAL

edypublicmutual

05-01-2009: Unit trust still a good bet for the long term
KUALA LUMPUR: The past 12 months has seen the erosion of wealth in virtually every type of non-fixed income investment, and unit trust funds have not been spared. Despite offering a modicum of security compared to traditional equities owing to its large pool of investors and its diverse portfolio of investments, trust funds have nonetheless declined alongside market indices, albeit at a slower rate. According to data from the Securities Commission, the total net asset value (NAV) in Malaysia dropped by more than 20% to RM135.87 billion in November from RM170.1 billion in January. There is, however, an anomaly within the figure, namely the decline in the NAV of Islamic-based funds. Unlike conventional funds’ NAV, which plunged 22% to RM119.77 billion in November from RM153.7 billion in January, Islamic funds declined only 2% to RM16.11 billion from RM16.4 billion. A fund manager noted that this could be due to the fact that Islamic funds were not traded intensively and tended to lag behind the movement of conventional funds.
Case in point is the fact that the total NAV of Islamic funds only peaked in June with an NAV of RM17.98 billion, up 10% from January before starting its downwards slide. By that time, conventional funds’ NAV had already started to shed value since its peak in January.
On the whole, September’s figure also marked the first time that the total NAV failed to show positive year-on-year growth in at least four years. Subsequently, total NAV for September shrank 4% compared to the same month in 2007.
According to Eric Wong, Hong Kong head of research for global fund analyst Thomson Reuters Lipper, the last 12 months has seen unprecedented movements in the fund industry for both Malaysia and the region.
“The year-to-date (January to November) average loss of all funds registered for sale in Malaysia is the largest (-23.10%) since its average loss for the entire year in 1997(-43.30%),” Wong said in an email reply to The Edge Financial Daily. He added that a similar trend had been occurring in other major regional markets such as Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and China. The silver lining for Malaysian investors, however, is that the Malaysian fund industry has incurred significantly smaller losses then that of most other Asian countries. This finding is not surprising as the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange has outperformed other countries in the region. Wong believed there were other considerations as well. “This may probably be attributed to the capital control imposed by the Malaysian government, rendering foreign investors less interested to invest in Malaysian equities and bonds,” Wong said. “Their relative low participation reduces the volatility of Malaysian equities and bonds. “This, coupled with the majority of funds that are registered for sale in Malaysia, are invested in Malaysian equities and bonds, limits the average loss of Malaysian funds in comparison to those in other Asian countries.” Responding to reports that a majority of equity funds in Malaysia had increased their portfolio allocation to cash or other liquid securities in Malaysia as a precaution against a continued slump in the market, Wong said some funds made the switch to cash in the third quarter. However, there was no evidence that a majority of equity funds were doing so, he added.
Time to buy and what to buy?
With equities trading at historic lows, common wisdom suggests that now would be a good time to cherry pick for good stocks at cheap prices. By extension, this would mean that equity funds also would trade cheaply.
Nonetheless, Wong believed it was premature to conclude that equities were undervalued, saying it was likely that equities would continue their slide in 2009. “The values of equities are basically determined by two components: interest rate and earnings growth. Low interest rates and expectation that central banks around the globe will continue to lower interest rates will continue to support equities,” he said. “However, with reports showing the global economic environment is projected to deteriorate further in 2009, the downwards trend of corporate earnings growth is less likely to reverse in the coming quarters. “Such a scenario means equities will still face significant downside risk on their valuation in 2009 and, hence, investors should not at this stage park their capital in equity funds.” Wong added that the same was likely true for commodity funds, which were traditionally even more volatile than equity funds. For investors who are concerned about preserving the value of their investments, Wong advised continued investment in bond-linked and money market funds, although yields had fallen to very low levels recently. Should investors stay away from unit trusts? No, said Robert Foo, financial planner and managing director of MyFP Services Sdn Bhd. So long as investing for the long-term is concerned, investors shouldn’t concern themselves too much with the current state of the market, as markets will grow in the long term. Unit trust funds, he added, were not “opportunistic investments” that would yield massive returns in the short-term. As a managed basket of investments, funds offer the benefit of professional management in exchange for more normalised returns on investments. “When we talk to clients, we tell them that they have to look at it from a period of time of five years and above,” Foo said. “Our objective is to help our clients achieve their investment targets and this means rebalancing their portfolios depending on the condition of the market.” Meanwhile, markets will rise and fall in the long-term, he said. What investors have to do is to rebalance their portfolios during both the peaks and the troughs. In that respect, it is essential for investors to establish investment goals that correspond with their tolerance for risk. Foo said a disciplined approach would allow for greater returns in the long-term. His clients, he said, averaged between 7%-8% in returns although they had differing investment targets. “When the market was way up, we also rebalanced our clients’ portfolios. We said, ‘Look, 60% return is absurd for a fund, so we need to rebalance,’ and we rebalanced our clients down,” he said. As for asset classes of funds, Foo said the type of fund was not as important as the revenue model of the underlying investment and consistency in performance, although he said MyFP’s policy was to stay away from “theme-based funds” such as those localised in a specific region or commodity. Foo also advised that investors refrain from going on a purchasing spree based on the “cheapness” of a stock or fund, as pricing was not a good indicator of the value of the share.
“At the end of the day, it’s not the price that determines the value of the stock — that kind of analysis is too simplistic. You have to look at the intrinsic value of the underlying equity to determine that,” Foo said.

kirawang

Tolong take note dan practise apa yang saya ajar kat class last and this week. Tahun 2009 ni tak boleh tidur..

Article ni tak boleh jd guideline..
..............................

IKKL diramal tidak meningkat 1,000 mata
KUALA LUMPUR 7 Jan. - Indeks Komposit Kuala Lumpur (IKKL) dijangka kurang turun naik pada pertengahan tahun ini berikutan pakej rangsangan yang diperkenalkan oleh kerajaan-kerajaan negara dunia mulai memberikan kesannya.

Bagaimanapun, Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif OSK-UOB Unit Trust Management Bhd, Ho Seng Yee menambah, IKKL tidak mungkin akan mencecah paras 1,000 mata.

''Pada pertengahan tahun ini, segala suntikan pakej rangsangan akan mula memberikan kesan dan menjadikan pasaran kurang bergolak. Pakej rangsangan ini biasanya mengambil masa antara enam hingga sembilan bulan untuk memberikan kesan terhadap pasaran.

''Pergerakan IKKL akan berada di paras sekitar 850 mata dan 960 mata tetapi tidak mungkin akan mencecah 1,000 mata,'' katanya selepas pelancaran dana terbaru syarikat itu, KLCI Advantage Fund di sini hari ini.

Seng Yee turut menjangkakan keadaan pasaran akan menjadi lengang selepas sambutan Tahun Baru Cina penghujung bulan ini.

Ditanya sama ada pakej rangsangan negara bernilai RM7 bilion mencukupi, beliau menyatakan, negara berkemampuan untuk menyuntik lebih banyak dana dan ini akan membolehkan pasaran berada di paras yang lebih baik.

Keadaan ini, katanya, akan mengembalikan balik keyakinan pelabur terutamanya pelabur asing.

IKKL pada tahun lalu, jatuh 39 peratus berikutan tindakan melepaskan pegangan ekuiti oleh para pelabur asing.

frapamocha

update pagi ni......

Selling was prominent in the second trading session as the KLCI eased from an intraday high of 936.63 to close only 5.4pts higher. Weak sentiment in construction stocks continue to weigh down the benchmark, but gains in selected banking stocks like Bumiputra-Commerce, Maybank and Eon Capital helped cushion the selldown. Volume was also lower compared to yesterday with 743.5m shares traded. Market breadth was negative with losers outnumbering advancers by 306 to 228. As the Dow eased 2.7% overnight, the KLCI is likely to follow suit. Coupled with the correction in CPO prices, plantation stocks may be under some selling pressure today.

kirawang

sedih tengok market hari ini..

tapi nasib baik dah buat semalam apa yang patut......

whomyd

turun balik klci... turun byk skit... nak pulun sales ni....

skywalker107

Originally posted by kirawang at 8-1-2009 01:59 PM
sedih tengok market hari ini..

tapi nasib baik dah buat semalam apa yang patut......

boss, saya pow 20sen
amik kad kat rozaimi g potostat jap td
halal aaaaa

whomyd

cuba tgk sini... komen apa yg patut..

http://www.bicarajutawan.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9483

kirawang

Originally posted by whomyd at 8-1-2009 05:17 PM
cuba tgk sini... komen apa yg patut..

http://www.bicarajutawan.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9483

Tak payah nak komen apa..biar mereka nak cakap apa yg tak berfaedah..
Janji kau buat sales gila gila..hang jadi kaya, dia dok jadi org gila membebel sana sini..


Btw, saya baca page belakang, setuju jugak dengan forumers lain, dgn agent yang buy and hold tu..

[ Last edited by  kirawang at 9-1-2009 08:45 AM ]

mamat_lazim

Originally posted by kirawang at 8-1-2009 11:27 PM



Tak payah nak komen apa..biar mereka nak cakap apa yg tak berfaedah..
Janji kau buat sales gila gila..

Btw, saya baca page belakang, setuju jugak dengan dia, dgn agent yang buy and hold tu..

aha..tak usah dilayan sgt..dia kalau tak dilayan dia nanti jawab sendiri..tengok kat nogold nya forum..dia reply sendiri nya..hehe..
kat jutawan tu dia guna nickname yg mcm bagi clue je...tapi kat nogold dia guna nama oppss.

singamerah

biasa laa tu... dah namanya manusia macam2 ragam...

rebung

biasa lah manusia mcm2 perasaan dihati fikiran.

ana_in

Boss Kirawang, nak pegi Asia Trader & Investor Convention (ATIC) 2009 on Mar 14th - 15th, 2009 kat KL Convention Centre tak?? Ada local n international speakers, brokerages firms, banks, asset management firms, information service vendors and other financial service providers . Bole dpt byk tips and info on the current financial updates.

Kalu nak pg, pm or sms me for a FREE 2-day sponsored entry ticket to attend over 50+ investment seminars (free sponsored ticket ni limited je, so kena cepat). Rasanya Public Mutual pon ada booth kat sana.

Kalu nak tau more info, call saya or else visit www.theATIC.net.

Thanks, Suhana

edypublicmutual

Originally posted by ana_in at 9-1-2009 10:11 AM
Boss Kirawang, nak pegi Asia Trader & Investor Convention (ATIC) 2009 on Mar 14th - 15th, 2009 kat KL Convention Centre tak?? Ada local n international speakers, brokerages firms, banks, asset ma ...

Boss je ke? Org lain takde ke?

kirawang

Originally posted by ana_in at 9-1-2009 10:11 AM
Boss Kirawang, nak pegi Asia Trader & Investor Convention (ATIC) 2009 on Mar 14th - 15th, 2009 kat KL Convention Centre tak?? Ada local n international speakers, brokerages firms, banks, asset ma ...

Thanks suhana,,,saya rasa mereka akan PM u sekejap lagi..
Group kami suka dengan majlis ilmu ini..

Tapi saya tak boleh join..tarikh tu saya pergi bercuti..

kirawang

Originally posted by edypublicmutual at 9-1-2009 10:41 AM



Boss je ke? Org lain takde ke?

boleh...dia tak kisah,..agakya..

kirawang

Originally posted by rebung at 9-1-2009 10:01 AM
biasa lah manusia mcm2 perasaan dihati fikiran.

Din, saya tak tahu macaman no HP kamu pupus dalam saya punya hp.
Agaknya dia pupus sendiri sebab kau lama tak dtang training kot..

btw, tolong sms yr no back, becuase kamu ada hutang 3 dengan meor..kalau belom sette, boleh bank in kat my acc.

mamat_lazim

Originally posted by kirawang at 9-1-2009 10:51 AM


Din, saya tak tahu macaman no HP kamu pupus dalam saya punya hp.
Agaknya dia pupus sendiri sebab kau lama tak dtang training kot..

btw, tolong sms yr no back, becuase kamu ada hutang 3 ...

tak dtg  training no pun boleh pupus boss?

ana_in

Org lain pon bole pegi. Free sponsored ticket ni limited je, kalu sape nak pegi, compile the lsit n pass it to me.
Nnt saya tolong registerkan. Kalu nak full details on ATIC 2009, pls visit: www.theATIC.net.
Rasanya Public Mutual mmg ada ambik booth kat ATIC 2009 ni, try tanya la.

whomyd

Originally posted by kirawang at 8-1-2009 11:27 PM



Tak payah nak komen apa..biar mereka nak cakap apa yg tak berfaedah..
Janji kau buat sales gila gila..hang jadi kaya, dia dok jadi org gila membebel sana sini..


Btw, saya baca page be ...

ok bos... saya buat sales gila2 tahun ni dan tahun2 akan datang...

whomyd

Originally posted by mamat_lazim at 8-1-2009 11:33 PM


aha..tak usah dilayan sgt..dia kalau tak dilayan dia nanti jawab sendiri..tengok kat nogold nya forum..dia reply sendiri nya..hehe..
kat jutawan tu dia guna nickname yg mcm bagi clue je...ta ...

takperlah, nanti2 diorang faham sendiri lah tu...