KUALA LUMPUR 26 Mei - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) perlu memberi keutamaan
terhadap kadar hutang isi rumah yang tinggi pada waktu ini sebelum berhasrat
untuk menaikkan Kadar Dasar Semalaman (OPR) kerana ia boleh menjejaskan
kemampuan bayaran pinjaman yang ditanggung oleh pengguna.
Ketua Bahagian Pendapatan Tetap UOB Asset Management (Malaysia) Bhd.,
(UOB Asset) Chang Kang Shyang berkata, ada masanya OPR perlu dinaikkan
bagi memastikan kewangan negara stabil, namun penilaian secara terperinci
perlu dilakukan terutamanya kesan rantaian kepada pengguna.
Jelasnya, peningkatan OPR secara drastik juga boleh
menjejaskan permintaan pengguna domestik.
"Memandangkan kadar hutang isi rumah negara agak tinggi,
ini (peningkatan OPR) boleh menjejaskan kemampuan mereka untuk membayar hutang,"
katanya kepada pemberita selepas pelancaran Dana United Trigger Bond UOB Asset di sini hari ini.
Yang turut hadir Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif UOB Asset, Lim Suet Ling
dan Ketua Singapura dan Pendapatan Tetap Asia UOB Asset Management Ltd., Chia Tse Chern.
Hutang isi rumah merupakan nilai terkumpul pinjaman yang dilakukan
oleh setiap isi rumah domestik merangkumi pinjaman pembelian perumahan,
kenderaan, pinjaman peribadi, pembelian saham dan kad kredit.
Sehingga 2013, jumlah keseluruhan pinjaman itu ialah RM854.3 bilion
atau 86.8 peratus daripada nilai KDNK.
BNM pada bulan ini telah mengekalkan OPR pada kadar 3.00 peratus,
iaitu buat kali ke-18 kadar itu dikekalkan. Kali terakhir OPR diubah ialah pada Mei 2011.
Bagaimanapun, beberapa penganalisis menjangka kadar itu bakal diubah
pada kajian seterusnya yang dijangka dilakukan pada Julai ini.
Perubahan OPR antara lain mampu mengubah kadar faedah pinjaman yang dilakukan oleh pengguna.
Dalam pada itu, UOB Asset telah melancarkan produk terbaharu iaitu
dana United Trigger Bond, iaitu unit amanah yang akan dilaburkan ke dalam bon.
Tse Chern berkata, kestabilan pulangan daripada pelaburan ke atas bon,
menjadi kelebihan utama mengapa bon masih mempunyai permintaan tinggi berbanding saham biasa.
Malah kata beliau, penerbit bon biasanya lebih mendekati pelabur
berbanding saham biasa yang agak berisiko.
UOB Asset menjangka produk baharu itu mampu meraih dana lebih RM100 juta untuk dilaburkan.
OPR tu over night policy rate. Kadar bunga yang dikenakan kepada bank commercial bila mereka meminjam dari Bank Negara. BLR pula adalah Base Lending Rate, yakni kadar bunga yang dikenakan bank commercial bila mereka meminjamkan duit kepada orang awam.
wild_card_my posted on 17-6-2014 05:14 PM
Alah itu nama produk company tu yg terbaru. Most likely unit trust fund yang invest dalam dalam bond ...
Ye ke?
Ketua Singapuranya kata,
We expect the Asian credit markets to have tendency to strongly rebound in 2014, by registering high single digit growth in the base case, or even low double digit growth
- Chia Tse Chern
Dgn forecast kenaikan OPR kpd 25-50 basis points
yg dekat 87% debt-to-GDP pinjaman2 yg bakal dinaikkan kadar faedahnya
maka, Trigger Bond capital funding worth RM100-150 juta tu
suntikan kpd public accountnya...kn?
Katanya lg,
Bank Negara has indicated that the current loose monetary policy might be adjusted and it sent a strong signal to the market that the interest rate hike is very near to the corner.
We think the rate hike will be in July the soonest, but on a gradual basis.
Rising interest rate is not good for the bond market, basically you need to adjust your portfolio as you might get hit if the interest rate hike is too fast.
Ada satu vdo yg agak simple pasal overnite rate ni...
Meaning, merupakan antara indicator utama ekonomi dan pembiayaan kewangan
yg lain juga termasuk...
Kata Governor Bank Negara, antara sebab2 utama kenaikan tu ialah...
We always look for signs if the low interest rate is leading to excessive risk taking. For instance, if there is a misallocation of resources such as people using cheap funds to go into business that are high-risk.
- Zeti Akhtar Aziz
Yg dijelaskan di atas ni sbg keadaan di mana
kadar inflasi yg LEBIH TINGGI berbanding kadar faedah simpanan tetap?
- pening ah...
Dijelaskan lg dgn...
What this means is that money that has been set aside as savings deteriorates in value because its returns are lower compared with the general rise in the price of goods and services.
Persoalannya,
jika pemegang bond RM10k
dgn pemegang simpanan tetap RM10k
dgn penghutang RM10k
- who might get the worst hit after the hike?
Then, kita masuk bond market plk... Last edited by Dzulqarnain on 18-6-2014 06:32 AM
Dude, you asked me a few basic questions and I jawab dgn sesimplenya. And then you came up with beberapa quotes dan sources, which is commendable.
Tapi aku tak faham, apa benda ko nak discuss ni? Ada banyak cara nak tahu apa itu OPR such as by googling it, tapi aku jawab je for your benefit.
Are you trying to sound smart? Your sentences are not coherent; all you did was to simply throw in a number of quotes from sources you found and putting some addendums.
I wouldnt even dignify your later question by answering it, but I'll make it a point by saying that those yang meminjam berlandaskan BLR/BFR (yang berlandaskan OPR) akan terjejas akan pembayaran nya as their effective interest rates would go up. Last edited by wild_card_my on 21-6-2014 04:06 AM
wild_card_my posted on 21-6-2014 03:58 AM
Dude, you asked me a few basic questions and I jawab dgn sesimplenya. And then you came up with bebe ...
Dude, you asked me a few basic questions and I jawab dgn sesimplenya. And then you came up with beberapa quotes dan sources, which is commendable.
Tapi aku tak faham, apa benda ko nak discuss ni? Ada banyak cara nak tahu apa itu OPR such as by googling it, tapi aku jawab je for your benefit.
Are you trying to sound smart? Your sentences are not coherent; all you did was to simply throw in a number of quotes from sources you found and putting some addendums.
I wouldnt even dignify your later question by answering it, but I'll make it a point by saying that those yang meminjam berlandaskan BLR/BFR (yang berlandaskan OPR) akan terjejas akan pembayaran nya as their effective interest rates would go up.
Ya lor, kalo tanya saya ofkos lending money (loans) pn produk drpd bank jgk khen...
- shudnt u read the topic 1st?
Knp bank isu bond? Sbb2nye...why?
How smart a marketeer explains the market...
- silakan...
wild_card_my posted on 26-6-2014 06:46 PM
Apa benda la ko tulis ni aku tak faham. English lintang pukang, tulis dalam bahasa pun tah hapa2. ...
Sorry sedara, saya bkn Amirekans.
Kalu sedara nk jual obat ala2 mat salih, sila kembali ke sinun.
X perlu moyan sgt, jz kata x tahu suda.
Kita tggu yg lbh arif xplain, bole?
- Salesman mmg x perlu pn tahu byk pasal market...
Sila ke bod nubie, pls.
- atleast, tahu kandangnya sblm munyik
World Bank report warns of OPR hike effect
Thursday, 03 July 2014
Ahead of Malaysia’s announcement of its policy rates next week,
the World Bank warns that any hike in Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM)
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) will have a greater effect on household budgets than in the past.
The bank’s Malaysia Economic Monitor reported that
as policymakers respond to economic improvements
by withdrawing fiscal and monetary policies,
Malaysia will face tighter domestic conditions.
This statement came just days before
BNM’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on July 10,
where it is widely expected to increase the OPR
by 25 basis points from the longstanding 3%.
Some observers have suggested that a July hike
may be the start of the cycle for future hikes to come.
“Finally, households will be pressed to maintain the spending growth
of recent years in the face of higher debt servicing costs
and hikes in administered prices,” said the World Bank,
while pointing out factors that will create a drag on domestic demand
and private consumption in particular.
In fact, inflation is expected to rise moderately this year and the next.
Most importantly, the price of some items that would see the impact
of the subsidy rationalisation programme of the Malaysian government.
The tightening fiscal and monetary policies in 2014 and 2015
are likely to dampen household consumption and investments,
said the report, adding that the combined contribution of fixed investments
and consumption for the country is expected to decline
from 6.8 percentage points (pp) in 2013 to 5.7 pp in 2014 and 5.3 pp in 2015.
“Since interest rates on mortgage loans are generally tied indirectly to the policy rate,
the increase in the stock of mortgage debt held by households
poses additional challenges for monetary policy,
as rate hikes are likely to have a relatively larger impact on household budgets
than in the past,” cautioned the World Bank.
The mortgage debt for the country’s households was
35% of gross domestic product (GDP) as of April 2014
compared to 26% of GDP as of April 2008.
Outstanding household loan growth from the banking system moderated
marginally to 11.6% as at end April 2014, compared to 12.2% a year earlier.
Despite the moderation in the growth of loans for personal use, credit cards and,
more recently, cars, the overall growth of household loans has been stable
due to slightly higher growth in loans for the purchase of residential property,
which is the largest category of loans.
These patterns in loan growth, combined with moderating but continued growth
in lending by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs),
have kept household debt relatively high.
Household debt to GDP ratio rose from 75.8% in 2010 to 76.6% in 2011.
In 2012, it reached 80.5%, which is one of the highest in the region.
Malaysia’s household debt came up to 86% of GDP as at end-December 2013.
However, so far BNM has been managing risks of financial imbalances
primarily through macroprudential regulations.
“Although such efforts have borne fruit
(credit growth continued to decelerate, albeit slowly, in 2013),
there is concern that the real interest rate has become negative,
and that household debt has continued to climb,
reaching 86.5% in 2013 from 81.3% in 2012,”
said the World Bank.
Recently, the central bank also noted that the current monetary and financial conditions
could lead to a broader build up in economic and financial imbalances and going forward,
the degree of monetary accommodation may need to be adjusted
to ensure that the risks arising from the accumulation of these imbalances
would not undermine the growth prospects of the Malaysian economy.
ALL eyes are on Bank Negara, as the central bank is expected
to announce by next Thursday whether Malaysia’s first interest-rate hike
in two years will happen this month or later.
The consensus view has been that Bank Negara would raise
the country’s benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) by at least 25 basis points (bps)
from the current 3.0% to 3.25% before year-end.
But the timing has been a matter of debate among economists.
There are only three meetings left for the year for
Bank Negara’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
to set the direction of the country’s interest rates.
After July 10, the next two meetings will be on Sept 18 and Nov 6.
Most economists polled by StarBizWeek expect the central bank to start
raising the OPR by 25bps on Thursday, given the country’s stronger-than-expected
economic growth in the first quarter of the year and rising inflationary pressure.
But there are some who believe the rate hike will only take place in September.
Crucial measure
The OPR, which is essentially the rate at which banks lend to each other,
has wide implication on the country’s economy.
Changes in the OPR tend to be passed on to consumers through changes
in the base lending rate, or BLR, of commercial banks and financial institutions.
Expectations of a rate hike have been building up for the past two months
after Bank Negara in May issued a statement clearly indicating that
it was ready to adjust the OPR to tackle the growing financial imbalances in the country.
That Malaysia’s growth prospects through the year are expected to remain firm,
while inflation is expected to be on the high side, lend further credence to such an outlook.
“We maintain our view that Bank Negara will begin to normalise the country’s interest rates
by raising the OPR by 25bps at the upcoming MPC meeting,”
Alliance Investment Bank chief economist Manokaran Mottain tells StarBizWeek.
Manokaran argues that the present conditions in the local economy
provide a good window for the central bank to raise the OPR.
He explains: “With the country’s economy expected to continue progressing on a healthy trajectory,
any gradual adjustment in interest rates can be easily absorbed without leaving a
significant adverse impact on potential growth.”
Malaysia’s economy grew 6.2% in the first quarter,
driven by strong domestic demand and recovery in net exports.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected
to remain at a robust rate of 5%-5.5% in the second half of the year.
The OPR has remained unchanged at 3% since May 2011,
when Bank Negara last delivered a 25bps hike.
Prior to the onslaught of the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis, Malaysia’s OPR stood at 3.5%.
The country’s OPR was subsequently cut down to as low as 2% to support
the domestic economy during the height of the global downturn
in early 2009 before being raised gradually to the present level.
The prolonged period of low interest rates in Malaysia,
while being supportive of the domestic economy, however,
has resulted in rising household debt level,
which reached a record of 86.8% of GDP at the end of last year.
There are concerns of growing financial imbalances in the country,
as the low cost of borrowing has resulted in increasingly more funds
being borrowed to finance speculative investments,
rather than being invested in productive activities that could bring
long-term benefits to the country’s economy.
“If Bank Negara is concerned about rising debt levels and wants to send a message,
then it probably makes sense to adjust policy rates gradually, but sooner rather than later,”
UBS Investment Bank executive director and senior Asean economist
Edward Teather says at a recent conference call from Singapore.
Teather is betting on Bank Negara to deliver a 25bps hike in the OPR to 3.25% on Thursday,
and another 25bps hike to 3.5% in September.
“The rationale for raising rates is that although painful,
not doing so would merely encourage more leverage
- ultimately making the situation worse,” Teather explains.
“We note Bank Negara’s comments that it would only
adjust the degree of accommodation, not aim to make policy tight.
As such we think any rate increases will pause
at the previous high in the OPR of 3.5%,” he adds.
Negative real return
Real interest rate in Malaysia has technically turned negative since the country’s inflation rate,
as measured by its consumer price index (CPI),
surpassed the OPR level in the fourth quarter of last year.
Despite the CPI showing signs of deceleration in April and May,
inflationary pressure is expected to pick up again in the months ahead,
driven by the Government’s resolve to continue with its subsidy rationalisation programme
and uncertainties about global crude oil prices.
Bank Negara has also noted that Malaysia’s inflation would remain
above its long-term average of 3% through the year.
“We note that if the central bank foresees the inflation rate accelerating at a faster pace again,
it will be driven to raise the OPR this month,” BIMB Securities Research economist Imran Nurginias says.
“But as things stand, we believe Bank Negara may not be in a hurry to raise the OPR,
as the US Federal Reserve has indicated that it would maintain interest rates in the United States
at super low levels for some time,” he adds.
Imran points out that he believes Bank Negara would only raise the OPR by 25bps in September,
even though he does not rule out the possibility of the central bank executing the rate hike in the week ahead.
Acong_II posted on 13-7-2014 04:35 AM
BLR skrg adalah 6.85%
Ha'ah la cong...
Malaysia BLR and BFR rise to 6.60%!!!!!
The central bank revised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basic points to 3%. Malaysia banking groups are raising their base landing rates (BLR) and base finance rates (BFR) by 30 basic points to 6.60% respectively.
No.
Banking Institution
With Effect From
BLR (% p.a.)
BFR (% p.a.)
1
Affin Bank Berhad
13/07/2010
6.30
6.30
2
Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad
13/07/2010
6.30
6.30
3
Asian Finance Bank
09/03/2010
5.75
5.75
4
AmBank (M) Berhad
13/07/2010
6.30
6.30
5
Bangkok Bank Berhad
14/07/2010
6.30
6.30
6
Bank Islam
10/07/2010
6.30
6.30
7
Bank of America Malaysia Berhad
13/07/2010
6.30
6.30
8
Bank of China (Malaysia) Berhad
14/07/2010
6.30
6.30
9
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (Malaysia) Berhad
11/05/2011
6.25
6.25
10
Bank Simpanan National
18/05/2010
6.05
6.05
11
CIMB Bank Berhad
11/05/2011
6.60
6.30
12
Citibank Berhad
13/07/2010
6.30
6.30
13
Deutsche Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
15/07/2010
6.30
6.30
14
EON Bank Berhad
14/07/2010
6.30
6.30
15
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
14/07/2010
6.30
6.30
16
HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad
12/05/2011
6.60
6.60
17
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank Berhad
15/07/2010
6.20
6.20
18
Malayan Banking Berhad
11/05/2011
6.60
6.60
19
OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
12/06/2011
6.60
6.60
20
Public Bank Berhad
11/05/2011
6.60
6.60
21
RHB Bank Berhad
11/05/2011
6.60
6.60
22
Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad
13/07/2010
6.30
6.30
23
The Bank of Nova Scotia Berhad
14/07/2010
6.30
6.30
24
The Royal Bank of Scotland Berhad
12/05/2011
6.25
6.25
25
United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Berhad
12/05/2011
6.60
6.60
- [url=Published: 11 July 2014 Maybank will be revising its deposit and base lending rates (BLR) effective July 16, in line with the increase in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points. Maybank’s deposit rates will be revised upward by up to 15 basis points, with its BLR increasing 25 basis points from 6.6% per annum to 6.85% per annum, Maybank said in a statement. The base financing rate (BFR) of Maybank Islamic Bhd will similarly be revised upward by 25 basis points to 6.85%. The last revision in Maybank’s BLR and Maybank Islamic’s BFR was on May 11 2011 when it was revised from 6.3% per annum to 6.6% per annum. – Bernama, July 11, 2014. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.c ... thash.hlMIIoWv.dpuf]360[/url]
Published: 11 July 2014
Maybank will be revising its deposit and base lending rates (BLR) effective July 16, in line with the increase in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points.
Maybank’s deposit rates will be revised upward by up to 15 basis points, with its BLR increasing 25 basis points from 6.6% per annum to 6.85% per annum, Maybank said in a statement.
The base financing rate (BFR) of Maybank Islamic Bhd will similarly be revised upward by 25 basis points to 6.85%.
The last revision in Maybank’s BLR and Maybank Islamic’s BFR was on May 11 2011 when it was revised from 6.3% per annum to 6.6% per annum. – Bernama, July 11, 2014.
Post time 17-6-2014 04:43 AM
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