Singapore akan mengalami krisis kewangan yg maha dahsyat

Acong

A massive banking crisis is brewing in Singapore, says Swiss billionaire Zulauf
Singapore Business Review – Thu, Feb 11, 2016 10:45 AM SGT

The three biggest banks are losing capital.

A crisis of staggering proportions is looming in China, and tiny Singapore will be caught right in the middle of the storm once the disaster finally erupts.

Speaking at the annual Barron’s roundtable, Swiss billionaire investor Felix Zulauf warned that Singapore’s largest banks are at risk of massive capital outflows if the Chinese economy experiences a hard landing, which he expects will happen this year.

“We are in a down cycle that will end with crisis and calamity. China in today’s cycle is what US housing was during the financial crisis in 2008,” Zulauf warned.

Zulauf warned that capital outflows in China will continue, prompting regulators to devalue the yuan by as much as 15% to 20% within the year. When this happens, Asian economies which are heavily dependent on China—particularly Singapore—will suffer because Chinese corporates cut their imports even more, while indebted Chinese companies will be placed at greater risk of default.

"I expect the situation the deteriorate to a point where we will witness a banking crisis in Asia that will hit Singapore and Hong Kong particularly hard," Zulauf said.

“It is conceivable that Singapore, which has attracted a lot of foreign capital over the years because of its image as a strong-currency state, will be extremely exposed to the situation in China. Singapore’s banking-sector loans have grown dramatically in the past five or six years. Singapore is now losing capital, which means the banking industry is losing deposits,” Zulauf said.

He said that such a situation will cause carry trades to go awry, which will result in steep losses for heavily-leveraged traders.

“I mentioned the potential for a banking crisis in Singapore. I don’t recommend shorting Singapore bank stocks, but rather the EWS, or iShares MSCI Singapore ETF. In this case, an investor will benefit from both declining local stock prices and a decline in the Singapore dollar against the U.S. dollar,” said the report  

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/new ... pore-024500286.html


mungkin pasnie akan ramai singaporean yg bunuh diri & warga malaya hilang kerja?  

jgn lupa bahawa ekonomi china adalah ekonomi PALSU melalui pembinaan bandaraya2 berhantu  

tu korang baca laa pasal china ghost cities  

Modngengade

Cash buat singapork

karipap

Singapore negara terkaya rantau asia

chazey

So? Krisis2 pun still kaya melebihi Malesia.

MatDeghem

ada baca kah comment2 :

All these propaganda against China is instrumented by Soros leads cartel that bet against Yuan.
It is a strategic and coordinated effort to cause massive disruption in Asia Financial crisis by attacking China.
-------------------------------
careful to this kind of ppl...scare off investors to dump the shares and he will pick them up big time when low. and make quick buck... what a typical butt head..reminds me of Soros when he exploited ringgit
----------------------------------
Among the three Singapore banks, DBS has the largest lending exposure to greater China excluding Hong Kong. From 2008 to end-June last year, this rose 9 percentage points to 17 per cent of gross loans. But DBS has said that it lends to better-quality Chinese and international corporates.

Mr Jack Wang, a partner at boutique investment firm Raffles Investment, said Mr Zulauf’s prediction of an impending banking crisis in Singapore is “unlikely and baseless”, given “the relatively small direct exposure of Singapore banks to China” and the fiscal and monetary discipline at both the banking industry and central bank level.

In its latest Financial Stability Review released in November 2015, the Monetary Authority of Singapore flagged rising risks to financial stability, but said that the financial system remains sound. In the report, the financial regulator also said that banks in Singapore have strong capital and liquidity buffers to withstand severe shocks.

Acong

MatDeghem replied at 13-2-2016 01:41 AM
ada baca kah comment2 :

All these propaganda against China is instrumented by Soros leads cartel  ...

china fake economy..... keep on building ghost cities   



The country that tricked the world
The question is how serious are China's exaggerations.
By Ana Swanson January 8


REUTERS/Aly Song

China’s stock market took a breather Friday after plunging this week, pulling global markets down with it. But the financial turbulence rocking China has brought to the surface a deeper fear: That its economy is sinking, and that its downfall will derail the still-fragile economic recovery going on in other parts of the world.

What makes those fears worse is that few people have a good understanding of how well China’s economy is really doing. The country’s official growth figures paint a rosy picture that any country would aspire to: In the third quarter, China said its economy expanded 6.9 percent from the previous year, far above U.S. growth of 2 percent.

But how much should we believe those figures?

“Not a lot,” says Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, a research consultancy based in London.

“They are absolute make-believe,” says Leland Miller, the president of China Beige Book International, which compiles private surveys on the Chinese economy.

China’s economy has been gradually slowing from the double-digit rates it recorded in past decades, due to a variety of factors, some of which are the inevitable result of many years of fast growth, and some of which are not. But experts widely disagree on exactly how much the economy has slowed. While some analysts estimate the growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) at as little as 1 or 2 percent, other estimates are higher, even if not as high as the country's official read.

Williams’ firm -- which set up its own measure for Chinese economic growth in 2009 based on figures like cargo freight volumes – believes China’s economy is likely growing at 4 or 4.5 percent. The chart below shows how his firm's estimates for China's growth have recently sunk below the official figures:



Miller’s firm estimates that China’s current growth is around 4.5 percent, though he calls the focus on GDP “sort of a distraction,” since GDP reflects aggregate growth, rather than the type of real productive economic activity that is sustainable and leads to more growth. “If China wants to generate aggregate growth, all it has to do is build a bridge, tear it down, build a bridge, tear it down, and keep going,” he says.

China denies allegations that it cooks its books. "China does not underestimate its GDP deflator and we don't overestimate our GDP," a spokesman from the statistics bureau said in July.

The question of China's official growth statistics is one of credibility. If the country is overstating growth a bit, then it might mean that the world economy will be a bit weaker in coming years than expected. If it is overstating it a lot, it could mean China's government is really worried about whether it is coming in for a hard landing, with far more serious implications for both the country and the global economy.

Many analysts say political pressure is certainly behind the inflated numbers. Achieving growth targets is a matter of political importance in China, and there's evidence that someone somewhere is fiddling with the numbers.

For one thing, China’s no. 2 leader, Li Keqiang, admitted as much in 2007. A diplomatic cable released to the public by Wikileaks quoted Li as saying during a dinner that GDP figures were “man-made” and therefore unreliable. Li said he personally looked at electric consumption, rail cargo and loans disbursed for a clue to how the economy was operating, rather than official growth figures.

“All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are ‘for reference only,’ he said smiling,” the cable reads.

There’s also a lot of numerical evidence that something fishy is going on.

In most years, if you add together the estimates that each of China’s 31 provinces give for their economic activity that year, you’ll get a figure that is much larger than Beijing’s independent calculation of what each sector produced that year. So much larger, in fact, that it looks like China is missing an entire province – suggesting that local leaders are being more than a little optimistic about their growth.

According to calculations by Capital Economics, the wealth of other economic data coming out of China suggests that GDP figures are overstated. And China’s growth figures in times of economic turmoil – like the Asian financial crisis – have been suspiciously steady. Unlike most emerging economies, China's “real growth rates are uncannily stable from quarter to quarter, which suggests that there is routine smoothing going on,” Williams wrote in a note in October.

The culprits are usually thought to be the official growth targets that leaders set for different provinces and the country as a whole. For decades, China has set an official economic growth target as part of its “Five-Year Plan,” which is exactly what it sounds like – a wide-sweeping development plan for the country for the next five years. In order to be promoted, officials at all levels must do their part to meet the goals in the Five-Year Plan.

China always manages to meet its annual growth targets. And despite growing evidence that the economy slowed in 2015, leaders have said that the country will still meet its goal of growth “around 7 percent.”

Westerners sometimes describe China’s record of satisfying these growth targets as a conspiracy -- as if someone in a back room at China’s statistics bureau is tasked with changing 0s to 7s until all the numbers add up.

In reality, the errors may be much more widespread and haphazard than that. When statisticians calculate growth, they have to make a lot of assumptions about missing data. In most countries there are errors in both positive and negative directions.

But because there is political pressure in China to hit a growth rate that is close to the official target, “all those interventions tend to push the figure in one direction,” says Williams.

Many Western analysts have argued that China should scrap this growth target altogether, instead putting its focus on unemployment and inflation, like most developed countries do.

Setting a growth target not only distorts China's official statistics, it is also likely bad for its economy, since it can encourage short-sighted policies that boost growth right now and hurt the economy later – like taking out more loans or building wasteful infrastructure – rather than a focus on more sustainable growth.

But China seems unlikely to do away with targets anytime soon. In November, President Xi Jinping announced the country's new targets for the next five years: Average annual economic growth of 6.5 percent between 2016 and 2020.

As Andrew Batson, the research director for economic research firm GaveKal Dragonomics, explained, China’s puzzling devotion to growth targets is all about politics, not economics.

The targets that Xi recently announced put the country in line to reach an economic level in 2020 that his predecessors Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping all aimed at before him. In China's one-party system, following the goals of past leaders, especially Deng Xiaoping, the father of China’s economic reforms, is just good politics. The targets “are a way by which successive Chinese leaders have tied themselves to the legacy of Deng Xiaoping, and thereby increased their own legitimacy,” writes Batson.

Unfortunately for Xi, China’s economy may refuse to cooperate with these political aims. China's economy has been slowing, due to its aging population, wasteful spending, a build-up of debt, and other factors. As the chart below shows, the gap between China's growth targets and its actual growth has narrowed significantly in recent years.


Capital Economics, Oct. 15
So the setting of a relatively high target of 6.5 percent growth for the next five years – a time in which economic forces are likely to continue to drag on China’s economy – suggests that we could see a lot more fiddled growth figures to come.

“I think that the only way that China will be able to hit its targets over the next five years would be in the short term to pursue some very undesirable stimulus policies, which would only create bigger problems down the road, or by faking the numbers,” says Williams.

Acong

adakah ramai warga malaya akan dibuang kerja nanti?  

hanakikan

Abis la lepas ni toilet kat sgpore kembali berbau hancing. Xde sapa nak tolong cucikan. Nak harapjan sporean?

incrossroad

Westerner cakap lebih nak hentam china.

Setakat cakap saja, cakap tak boleh ubah hakikat china ada 3 trillion reserve. Lagi pun china sekarang dah pandai, cara2 george soros nak hemtam asia financial crisis 1997 dah tak.boleh pakai

Yg suffer bukan sporre, yg suffer negara australia yg export commondity kepada china,

noor2

Takziah untuk  vermicelli @stinger....hehe

tokmanting

Takper. Nanti pm singapore boleh dapat derma bilion bilion dari raja arab utk pulihkan ekonomi

kak_sue

nampak nya si Jho Low pun dah siap sedia dgn kemungkin ini dgn menjual art piece dia....



Low is once again creating buzz in the art world. Since Feb 3, he has sold works by Claude Monet, Pablo Picasso and Jean-Michel Basquiat, according to three people familiar with the matter.
They fetched about US$54 million (S$75 million), with unusually steep losses on at least two pieces.

The artworks consigned by Low were among the top lots at Sotheby's evening auction of Impressionist, modern and contemporary art in London this month.
All three had been pledged as part of the collateral for a loan of about $100 million from Sotheby's Financial Services, two of the people said, asking not to be named because the information is private.

Low turned heads in the art world in 2013 and 2014 with a shopping spree for trophy pieces.
While he personally examined the works and negotiated prices, one of the people said, it's unclear whether he used his own money, family money or made investments for clients.

More recently, Low has been a seller. This month, his 1935 painting by Picasso - a portrait of the artist's lover, Marie-Therese Walter - fetched 18.9 million pounds (S$38 million).


The third work offered by Low, Monet's painting of the Palazzo Ducale in Venice, sold for 11.6 million pounds, falling below the bottom end of the pre-sale estimate. Sotheby's catalogue shows the consignor acquired the piece from a Swiss collection. Because that transaction was private, it is hard to determine whether Low made or lost money.

din_atos

Percayalah ckp omputeh tu. China is now growing stronger. Masakan tidak amerika merangkak cari negara sign tppa. Depa takut skrg china deal ngan russia x pki matawang usd dah

(=_=)

karipap replied at 13-2-2016 01:37 AM
Singapore negara terkaya rantau asia

Qatar negara terkaya di dunia apatah lagi di asia

Changa

din_atos replied at 13-2-2016 08:41 AM
Percayalah ckp omputeh tu. China is now growing stronger. Masakan tidak amerika merangkak cari negar ...

Dari last year ekonomi china down dek...tak pernah baca paper ke dek?
Heshe ini bukan buat statement kekuar dari bontot jah dek.
Heshe cakap ada basis...sama ada akan jadi betul.ke tidak itu lain cerita tapi fakta ekonomi china tgh down mmg betul

Vympel77

http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/taiwan-mh370-pilot-mysteriously-resurfaces-almost-2-years-after-his-flight-vanished-over-china-sea/

noraidil_06

I want sgd sama level dgn  myr blh tak? Nak shopping.yg lain2 mak x kisah nak.

din_atos

Changa replied at 13-2-2016 09:44 AM
Dari last year ekonomi china down dek...tak pernah baca paper ke dek?
Heshe ini bukan buat statem ...

Percaya la paper tu. I am trader i follow fundemental n analisis chart. Sebab tu i berani ckp hari2 hadap

tomatome

din_atos replied at 13-2-2016 11:07 AM
Percaya la paper tu. I am trader i follow fundemental n analisis chart. Sebab tu i berani ckp hari ...

Betul ke china sengaja manipulate dn buat2 ekonomi merudum sja nk jatuhkan us?? Padahal depa aman2 saja x gawat pun tp diorg duk control ekonomi skrg?

incrossroad

China is slowing bukan sebab economi runtuh ke ape, mereke tengah upgrade industry mereke.

Industry yg low end, mereka sengaja nak buang, mereka nak menuju ke arah service based economic, automation dan valued added. Mereka tak nak polution yg associate dgn low end industry.

So china akan jadi lebih berdaya maju lepas upgrade industry.