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UNIT TRUST PUBLIC MUTUAL; MACAMANA NAK UNTUNG CEPAT DAN BANYAK?
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Liberalisasi sektor perkhidmatan kewangan pula dijangka diumumkan minggu depan dan kita menjangka ia akan turut membabitkan sektor kewangan Islam yang kini menjadi alternatif utama kepada kaedah konvensional. Liberalisasi sektor kewangan Islam bakal menjadikan ia peneraju utama sektor kewangan Malaysia, mengatasi sektor kewangan konvensional, selaras usaha menjadikan Malaysia sebagai hab kewangan Islam dunia............
ade pro kontra di sebalik ni
komen aku...
pro : harap KLCI leh naik lagi.
kontra : kesian kat bank & finance comp yg kurang kuat
minta komen dr pakar2 economist.............. |
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Originally posted by tauke at 24-4-2009 17:08 
Liberalisasi sektor perkhidmatan kewangan pula dijangka diumumkan minggu depan dan kita menjangka ia akan turut membabitkan sektor kewangan Islam yang kini menjadi alternatif utama kepada kaedah ...
sbb ni ker BIMB jump 16sen arini......
adussss,,,market trus dongak...bila nk uturn ni.. |
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klci dah close atas 990.... adakah akan trus ke 1000 minggu depan? |
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Originally posted by frapamocha at 23-4-2009 10:10 
Chk d outlook chart I sent u smlm. It'll give an indication where the mkt is going, tech analyst point of view. It shld help.
9:29 am - KLCI looks like ranging today !
http://img2.imageshac ...
tgk chart semalam dah nampak candlestick shooting star..
skali hari nie market terus naik daaa....  |
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Originally posted by amirul_nazri at 24-4-2009 18:58
tgk chart semalam dah nampak candlestick shooting star..
skali hari nie market terus naik daaa....
tgk monthly chart market bullish beb,,,,,tp world market smua dah sign uturn......maybe ada kaitan dgn local sentimen gak kot......takper la at least 950-960 dah jadi lubuk baru.....
sampai kmana dia nk naik....nanti turun gak skettt...mcm Feb 07....tgh sedap2 bullish tetiba gaung....
mmandangkan tk jadi reverse nampak gaya kena tukar strategi dan buat plan baru la.... |
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aku nampak chart DJ tengah dalam proses membentuk shoulder belah kanan kat weekly, kira bull trap sampai area 10-11k. Harap panas sampai bulan july, then aku contact agen akuh terus masuk MM, lock profit |
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Originally posted by mytrade at 24-4-2009 20:09
tgk monthly chart market bullish beb,,,,,tp world market smua dah sign uturn......maybe ada kaitan dgn local sentimen gak kot......takper la at least 950-960 dah jadi lubuk baru.....
sampai ...
kalau UT nie ada auto trailing stop kan best... |
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Sharing info pasal PCIF
Asset allocation by country for Shariah-compliant Equities & Islamic Derivatives as at 31 March 2009
1. Hong Kong - 12.01%
2. China - 44.64%
3. Taiwan - 25.54%
4. Malaysia - 17.81%
Top Holdings as at 31 March 2009
1. China Mobile Limited - NAV 9.01%
2. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Comp Limited - NAV 5.46%
3. China National Building Material Comp Limited - NAV 3.77%
4. CNOOC Limited - NAV 3.61%
5. PetroChina Comp Limited - NAV 3.54% |
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ermmm...macam best jer terus naik......tapi jgn terus naik terus plak jatuh.... |
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naiik atau jatuh...ko tetap akan gelak macam dalam avatar ko....hehhehehe |
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Originally posted by iena_kindaichi at 26-4-2009 21:00 
naiik atau jatuh...ko tetap akan gelak macam dalam avatar ko....hehhehehe
nak naik, dan nak jatuh..... |
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Originally posted by kirawang at 26-4-2009 23:05
nak naik, dan nak jatuh.....
jgn sampai jatuh terlentang dah ler.... |
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Is the recovery in Asia for real?
WE introduce the "dashboard", a two-dial console (of exports and industrial production) to gauge Asia’s cyclical position.
Ever since Asia's economies went into near-free fall last September, investors have wanted to know when the turn will come and which data will show it (and show it first). Some want to know when business will pick up; some want to know when markets will pick up and/or if the pick-up already seen in some economies is "for real" in that they are backed up by real economic activity.
That's what this "recovery dashboard" is all about. We will endeavour to pinpoint where Asia sits "in the economic cycle".
Such a stylised cycle is pictured here. Are we at point A? No, that would have been last July, right before the Beijing Olympics.
Are we at point B? No, mercifully, we think, Asia is already past that point as well.
Are we at point C? Probably not but we think that's where we're going and have already made the turn in that direction. And if we're right, then the recent rise in Asia's equity markets has some economic justification to it.
So, how do we pinpoint the cycle as briefly as we can? After all, we cover 11 Asian economies and there are 20 or 30 important data series that go into a formal forecast of any of them.
What most want is just an update of the two or three biggest drivers of the cycle — like the two biggest gauges on the dashboard of our cars. The speedo and the tach get us pretty far down the road and, truth be told, most of us probably haven't looked at the tach since high school.
In this dashboard, the two gauges will be exports and industrial production (IP). Why these two? A few reasons: first, that gives one gauge for the supply side of the economy (IP) and one for the demand side (exports) — two sides of one coin.
On the supply side, IP is a great measure of the cycle. When an economy is going up or down, IP is usually going up or down more vividly.
Look at any of the past five or six National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)-declared recessions in the US, for example, and you'll see the peaks and troughs in IP match up almost precisely with the economic peaks and troughs declared by NBER.
(NBER defines a recession in terms of a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product or GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales; not necessarily in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.)
Manufacturing/IP is even more important to Asia's economies than the developed economies these days so its usefulness as a cyclical pointer is clear.
On the demand side, we want to watch exports closely because that is what drove the collapse in Asia's economies between August 2008 and January 2009. If Asia is going to make the turn, it will have to follow from a turn in exports. Thankfully, as we note below, it looks like that turn has arrived.
Methodology
Since we're looking for a turn in the economies, most of the time we'll be looking at levels of exports and industrial production. We won't be looking at the year-on-year growth rates in these levels; we'll leave those useless statistics for the newspapers to report.
Why are they useless? Imagine you're looking for a turn in the stock market. Do you care how much the market is down relative to a year ago?
Of course not. That's water under the bridge. What you care about is whether the market is up relative to yesterday and the day before and the day before that. Same with exports and IP. We want to know if they are up from last month and the month before, not from a year ago. So we'll watch the levels mostly. Paying attention to the year-on-year growth rates almost guarantees you'll miss the turn.
Two other quick points. First, the dashboard will mainly be a data-reporting publication, not a forecasting one. Of course, we'll tell you where we think we're going but mostly we'll be telling you whether we're getting there or not.
The data — exports
So let's begin. We previously reported a tentative bottom in Asian exports had been reached in January 2009. Strong demand from China had led to an 18% bounce in exports from all other Asian countries between January and February.
That was absolutely key because it had been the collapse in exports between August 2008 and January 2009, mainly to China, that caused the sharp drop in GDP in Asia in 4Q08.
A big question surrounding the rebound, however. Chinese New Year always makes monthly comparisons difficult between January and February. You're never sure if a surge (or a collapse) is real or a distortion.
But with March data now in hand for four countries exporting into China (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand), the February rise looks very much to have been real. There was a very small (2%) retracement in March but the lion's share of the February rebound has "stuck".
Put differently, true February exports might have fallen half way between January and March levels. Either way, the turn was sustained in March. Notably, Singapore reported a 10% monthly rise in its non-oil domestic exports in March.
That put Singapore squarely into the pack of other Asian countries that have seen strong rises in February and/or March.
The data — industrial production
The turn, if one can call it that yet, in IP is more tentative/nascent than the turn in exports. That's normal — supply always lags demand in the recovery phase of the cycle. Producers are unsure if the increase in demand is permanent and they try to meet demand out of existing inventories (instead of raising production).
If the rise in demand persists, though, the classic inventory snap-back results with producers rushing to catch up. In this light, the durability of March export levels should lead to a stronger/more evident turn in IP in short order.
For now though, any turn in IP in Asia is tentative and has only just begun.
The February rise amounted to 3.6% month-on-month (m-o-m), seasonally adjusted (sa) for the Asia9 and 4.5% for the Asia8.
March data so far is mixed. Three countries have reported. China's output remained essentially unchanged between February and March (it rose by 0.9% m-o-m, sa but the data is among Asia's most questionable).
Taiwan's IP rose sharply — by 9% (sa) between February and March. But Singapore's IP fell by 10% (when extremely volatile pharma data is excluded. Otherwise, total IP fell by 14% m-o-m, sa).
The data
Asia's economies are no longer in free-fall. Exports appear to have turned the corner. Demand from China had been primarily responsible for the drop and solely responsible for the rise. That rise occurred in February and has held firm in March.
On the supply side, industrial production has lagged the upturn in exports. This is normal; supply always lags demand in the recovery phase.
Further corroboration that exports have turned the corner in March and April will bring further moves up the curve in IP. Indeed, one or two more months of sustained export growth could bring a sharp snapback in supply as inventories are rebuilt.
The view
We believe the turns apparent in the cycle are "real" and that Asia's economies will proceed further north in the coming months. We have long argued (long before the upturn was actually seen) that the drop in exports was due to five factors, four of which were short-term in nature and would soon correct.
There is, of course, no guarantee that the turn in exports in February is the correction we were expecting but it is consistent with our analysis and we expect it to continue.
Moving to GDP growth, we expect the 10% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), seasonally adjusted annualised rate (saar), average drop in the Asia 10 in 4Q08 will moderate to a 3%-4% drop in 1Q09 and turn to positive growth of about 4%-5% in the second quarter of this year.
So far China, Singapore and South Korea have reported first-quarter GDP growth.
China's 6.1% year-on-year growth translates into sequential growth of 6.8% (q-o-q, saar) a sharp improvement over the 2.2% expansion in 4Q08. South Korea reported a sharp improvement as well with a slight rise in GDP in 1Q09 after an annualised drop of 21% in 4Q09.
Alas, Singapore's GDP fell by slightly more in 1Q09 than in 4Q08 (20% vs 16% annualised). But Singapore's NODX finally turned north, and sharply so, in March and if Asia's export turn is sustained as we expect, then positive GDP growth should result in due course.
Plainly though, the marginal path for exports and industrial production remains key.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/images/stories/dashboard_04.jpg
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/images/stories/dashboard_05.jpg
[ Last edited by kirawang at 28-4-2009 10:20 ] |
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PCIF semalam...
| 27/4/2009 | Public China Ittikal Fund | PCIF | 0.1596 | -0.0029 | -1.78% |
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kirawang..
camana klu investment 2k dan skrg profit 6%?
boleh buat switching gak ke? atau boleh tengok je profit di awangan  hehehe
atau ada min amount utk switching? |
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Originally posted by iena_kindaichi at 26-4-2009 21:00
naiik atau jatuh...ko tetap akan gelak macam dalam avatar ko....hehhehehe
kita mesti happy go lucky dlm setiap apa jua market situation...market naik ada untung, market drop lagi ada untung |
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Originally posted by linsyah at 30-4-2009 14:17
kirawang..
camana klu investment 2k dan skrg profit 6%?
boleh buat switching gak ke? atau boleh tengok je profit di awangan hehehe
atau ada min amount utk switching?
anda boleh switch . kena sw full. dah ada account PIMMF, nanti apply telemutual pin no, lps tu boleh switch sendiri. |
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wooow..han seng...
semalam dah lah china ittikal naik 4,5%....
[ Last edited by kirawang at 4-5-2009 16:29 ] |
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standby utk switching pcif ku ini  |
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Category: Belia & Informasi
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Post time 24-4-2009 05:08 PM
Author
