Kesimpulan
- 19000 kematian on september -- based on IHME model dan projection.
- worst case senario... 27000 kematian- rasa ni bila scenario tak ikut sop.. tak pakai mask etc
- if vaksin roll out rate sekarang ni - 3800 nyawa dpt diselamatkan. lebih nyawa dapat diselamatkan kalau vaksin roll-out kita tak lembab ya amat mcm sekarang
-lets doa dan usaha supaya projection ni tak benar
Projections
• In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, our model projects19,000 cumulative deaths on September 1, 2021. This represents 15,000 additional deaths from May 24to September 1 (Figure 20). Daily deaths will peak at 180 on June 26, 2021 (Figure 21).
• If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 2,200 fewercumulative deaths compared to the reference scenario on September 1, 2021 (Figure 20).
• Under our worse scenario, our model projects 27,000 cumulative deaths on September 1, 2021, anadditional 7,700 deaths compared to our reference scenario (Figure 20).
• By September 1, we project that 3,800 lives will be saved by the projected vaccine rollout.
• At some point from May through September 1, 9 countries will have high or extreme stress on hospitalbeds (Figure 24). At some point from May through September 1, 9 countries will have high or extremestress on ICU capacity (Figure 25)
kena faham projection ni termasuk bukan sakit covid contoh sakit kronik cm madu jusa c minus friska bibik brengset ada kencing manis darah tinggi kalau tak dapat rawatan sebaiknya di sebabkan wad dipenuhi patient covid?
jd risiko kematian tu ada. kiranya mmg worst lah. 19000 dah kira healthcare system runtuh.
tak dapat tarikh lagi..
tapi astrazeneca 12 minggu gap... so dalam bulan 7 kot...
first jab aku 3 may... dah sebulan dah... tak mutant lagi aku ni hahahah
sumber KKM
jumlah kematian 2020 = 463 org
Jumlah kematian 2021 = 2993 - 463 = 2530 org (hanya utk jan - jun)
tgk kadar pon naik exponential...bukan bekadar terus..
mana boleh main kira secara total rambang macam uols bagi tu.....
belum lagi dgn ambil kira hospital penuh, icu tak cukup, staff kesihatan overwork, VOI, VOC yg menyebabkan ramai mati even yg sihat dan muda,
projection mesti kene ambik kira semua....
apadaaaa....
tapi aku harap dan berdoa kita boleh menidakkan projection IMHE ni...
jaga sop.. ambil vaksin
Post time 3-6-2021 11:03 AM
变色卡
Author
padahal sebahagian moderator sibuk shopping online
