V26 MH370 Usaha Mencari Kotak Hitam Diteruskan

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hi jemput masuk

Misi mencari MH370 masuk hari ke-27, meliputi 223,000km persegi

KUALA LUMPUR: Operasi mencari pesawat Malaysia yang hilang masuk hari ke-27 hari ini, dengan kawasan pencarian meliputi kira-kira 223,000 kilometer persegi kira-kira 1,680km di barat laut Perth, Australia.

Pusat Koordinasi Agensi Bersama (JACC) dalam kenyataan hari ini berkata sebanyak lapan pesawat dan sembilam kapal akan membantu dalam misi pencarian hari ini.

"Sebuah daripada pesawat itu ditugaskan untuk menggugurkan boya penanda datum yang dilengkapi alat khas untuk mengesan lokasi pesawat itu di kawasan pencarian," menurutnya.


JACC dilancarkan pada 1 April di Perth bagi menyelaraskan operasi mencari pesawat Malaysia Airlines Penerbangan MH370.

Menurut kenyataan itu, keadaan cuaca hari ini dijangka cerah dengan jarak penglihatan kira-kira 10 kilometer, dan hujan sekejap-sekejap diramal berlaku di kawasan selatan Lautan Hindi.

- BERNAMA



KOMANDER Pegawai Memerintah Kapal KD Lekiu, Jamsari Tahir (belakang) melihat radar kawasan pencarian MH370 ketika kapal berkenaan berlabuh di Pangkalan Tentera Laut HMAS Stirling, Perth, Australia. - Foto Effendy Rashid


This Data Model Shows MH370 Could Not Have Flown "Accidentally" To Its Destination            
None of the plane's paths can be reconciled with a geodesic, meaning the plane took multiple, intentional turns before going dark.
By Conor Myhrvold                                                            

    Over the past two weeks, FastCoLabs has been building a Monte Carlo model to predict potential paths of MH370. I wrote about Version 1 last week and after the piece hit Reddit I added a more technical description. Now I've updated and extended the model, using information that wasn't yet available earlier. This project is also available as code: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3, and as a full file via GithHub.

Picking Up Where We Left Off
   We last left off with a relatively simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model, trying to predict possible flight paths for the missing airliner. I used the plane's previous heading--assuming MH370 tended to along a similar direction as before, with some ability to turn--and the tendency to head to the last ping arc (8:11 am) at each time to probabilistically determine its subsequent locations.
The last ping arc took into account enough distance on either side--through the standard deviation--to effectively cover an area which blanketed the other pings as well [1]. Each new location only depended on the heading of the previous step, while the ping arc probability grid which made the plane tend toward the last ping arc, remained constant.
Results consistently showed, across a range of reasonable variations, that MH370 “chose” the southern arc most frequently and ended off the Australian West Coast, confirming independent Inmarsat Doppler analysis identifying a similar area of ocean nearby:



Heading Off Criticism
    Yet the normal distributions I used for the plane heading, and the probability grid, were still criticized for being, well, too normal. So I implemented two heading choice distributions as well, both quite popular in some circles (unit circles, actually): the Wrapped Cauchy and the Von Mises. Both generated heading selections that were similar and then dramatically different, from how I chose the heading in Version 1.

I also found the Inmarsat ping error range: a specialty satellite industry blog pointed out a careful calculation on PPRuNe [2], which determined 1o to 2o error. For the last ping, where the satellite was 40o from the plane’s perspective, this would mean error of 2.5% or 5% of the total distance between the satellite and the plane, measured by the lag time [3].


   All showed that if MH370 did a true random walk--picking plane headings which wandered any which way, and using just the ping arc to constrain MH370’s ultimate location--MH370 ends up all over the arc within its flight range. This was the uniform distribution so vaunted on Reddit, confirming my original intuition on how to not pick the heading.

Desserting The Data Through Cherry-Picking
    Next, I wanted all the pings to make my model the Queen of them all. Enough infographics had shown multiple pings, and my error assumptions were accommodating enough, that with some effort in Mathematica, I could now plot all of the plane pings. So each time step would have its own unique ping, instead of ping-ybacking on the generous error assumptions of another ping. I also plotted the Great Circle path from MH370’s last known location to where it ended up in all of my models, a standard feature in the Python library I used [4]. Importantly, a Boeing 777 such as MH370 will either fly by magnetic bearing (unlikely just by eyeballing) or alternatively via the Great Circle to maximize fuel efficiency (via distance efficiency) between two waypoints.



Version 1 of the model simultaneously and independently came to the southern route conclusion; now, I wanted to see the complete picture of the flight. All of the plane’s possible locations, over the whole duration. I had not yet seen modeled, let alone guesstimated with specific scenarios in mind.
The National Transportation and Safety Board provided Australia with few possible paths to aid in the search, in a reserved or miserly manner, depending on your perspective. Malaysia, in turn, has released its own few paths; but none of them appeared to plot the pings arcs to see whether these paths were actually possible, let alone showing them in the plot.
Now, it was time to generate thousands of paths. Our simulation would be the ultimate pathfinder (sorry, Nissan!) No more cherry-picking several fortunate few. This would be equal opportunity, Monte Carlo style, which would lead to unequal outcomes [5] in a fraction of the time and expense of the traditional way you can narrow down potential paths of MH370.

Reconstructing The Pings, And Why This Is Right (On Average)

Several quick points about accuracy:

• The error I assume in each ping is still generous; the standard deviation is 2.5% and 5% of the last ping’s radius arc--which is more than the distance differences between the pings. So I am allowing for as much wiggle room as possible in terms of how I pick where the pings are; and then some.
• Even if the ping timings between the first ping and the last ping are not exact in an absolute sense, they certainly are in an average sense. Which means that using the plane’s ultimate location on the arc, as the end point for the Great Circle, is a sound strategy.
• Looking at where the plane is plotted over time, the conclusions are plain to see--there is just not enough wiggle room to adjust the ping spacings in a way that allow for a flight path which does not make turns contrary to what an autopilot would automatically pick.
  

MH370 Flight Trajectory Through All Pings
So, here are the results, with the realistic normal heading assumption of Version 1 along with the realistic options in Version 2 for Wrapped Cauchy [6] and Von Mises:


Autopilot Analysis
    Through many thousands of simulations of various parameters specific to MH370’s predicament, we now have a much better idea of what MH370’s flight paths could be. My model shows likelihoods for MH370, not a definitive location. Is it possible that what is most likely is not in fact the case? Yes, of course, but the very notion of a Monte Carlo is predicated on the odds, meaning this analysis comes with an unfortunate realization--even if you don’t want a scenario to be true, if all of the available information points to that, then it is the likely leading outcome.
What does this all mean? Autopilot is out of options. You see, here is the simple problem--none of the possible paths can be reconciled with a geodesic (Great Circle) which means that the plane turned at multiple points. How could it turn? Well, the plane was “flown” to its final location--either manually by a human, or by a program entered into the flight management system. These results strongly suggest that wherever MH370 is, the odds are that someone wanted it there.

Inmarsat Ping Timeline Table
2:11 am -- First ping.
2:15 am -- Last sighting of MH370 by Malaysia military radar.
3:11 am -- Second ping. First ping after plane disappeared [7].
4:11 am -- Third ping.
5:11 am -- Fourth ping.
6:11 am -- Fifth ping.
7:11 am -- Sixth ping.
8:11 am -- Seventh ping. Last full ping from MH370. (What earlier was thought of as the 5 th ping after disappearance, but is actually the 6th ping.)
8:19 am -- Partial ping?! (Still not understood.)

zorrro_03

mohon tt tunaikan tanggungjawab sepatutnya..   

RED 666

sekejap kata dah jumpa, sekejap kata belum jumpa, apa2pun harap akan jumpa juga dalam masa terdekat ni

Firenzza

benang da sendu ka smpai x tau nk boh tajuk apa........

revolusi_30

Debris satu pun xda photo ke ?

revolusi_30

Kalau dah mati semua napa Kerajaan tak berkabung lagi. !!!

revolusi_30

Nape kenyataan asyik bercanggah je ... Patutl org cakap MaLIEsia.

revolusi_30

Kerajaan jangan sembunyi sesuatu !!

freekey

ping ping ping... pang kang!!

tapibukanaku

cek in..


@lorelai @scorpionkiki @azie.dz

atira

revolusi_30 posted on 3-4-2014 01:13 PM
Nape kenyataan asyik bercanggah je ... Patutl org cakap MaLIEsia.

ko kene tanya lobai llkick...(tak ingat ejaan)
smalam bukan main dia hangin bila aku sebut pasal bercanggah2 ni....

freekey

isseliparjepun

Mongolia la pulak....

tapibukanaku

letak lah tajuk TT @daitechgroup

scorpionkiki

freekey posted on 3-4-2014 01:17 PM

Muka masing masing mcm stim tak tentu arah

Changa

RED 666 posted on 3-4-2014 01:10 PM
sekejap kata dah jumpa, sekejap kata belum jumpa, apa2pun harap akan jumpa juga dalam masa terdekat  ...

sejak bila cakap udah jumpa sis?
ini kes kebimboan ke apa?

sis baca kat mana kata dah jumpa?

ke sis baca kat blogspot then assume benda itu betul??

sedih la kau ni

cloudy_83

terima kasih daitechgroup!

ais_kosong

berani gak budak nih..

tapibukanaku

PM NAJIB RAZAK’S PRESS CONFERENCE REMARKS IN PERTH ON MH370

I would like to start by thanking the men and women who are giving their all to find MH370.

Over the past three weeks, hundreds of people have journeyed thousands of kilometres to help. They have searched through stormy seas and freezing fog. They have sailed through storms to find the plane. We owe them each a debt of gratitude.

This has been a remarkable effort, bringing together nations from around the world. When MH370 went missing, dozens of countries answered the call for help. Their commitment will not be forgotten.

In a time of great tragedy – for the countries with citizens on board, and the families whose loved ones are missing – this co-operation has given us all heart. Differences have been set aside, as 26 nations have united behind a common cause. The disappearance of MH370 is without precedent; so too is the search.

This morning I met with sailors and aircrew at Pearce Air Force Base. I also spoke to the commanders of the seven nations who are here to search for MH370. They told me of the difficulties of a search like this; of distance, and weather, and of maintaining morale over a long period.

As we speak, 10 aircraft and 9 ships are searching the Indian Ocean for any sign of the missing plane. The search area is vast, and the conditions are not easy. But the new refined search area has given us new hope. And I believe the courage of the crews is more than equal to the task. Once again, I thank them all for what they are doing.

I would also like to thank Prime Minister Abbott for hosting us here in Perth; for agreeing to lead the search operations in the southern Indian Ocean; and for accepting our invitation for Australia to participate as an Accredited Representative in the investigation. We will continue to work closely with the Australian government to draw up a comprehensive agreement on the search.

At this difficult time, Australia has proven an invaluable friend. The Australian authorities, like so many others, have offered their assistance without hesitation or delay. I would like to sincerely thank Australia for all they have done, and are doing, to find the plane.

We are also grateful to all those who have brought their expertise to bear on what Prime Minister Abbott rightly called ‘one of the great mysteries of our time’.

The disappearance of MH370 has tested our collective resolve. Faced with so little evidence, and such a Herculean task, investigators from Malaysia, the US, the UK, China, Australia and France have worked without pause to reveal the aircraft’s movements. Their collective efforts have led us here.

We are here today, but our thoughts are thousands of kilometres away. In the cities and countries around the world, where families of those on board wait desperately for news. And in the vastness of the Indian Ocean, where MH370 awaits.

I know that until we find the plane, many families cannot start to grieve. I cannot imagine what they must be going through. But I can promise them that we will not give up.

Thank you.

ultra78

freekey posted on 3-4-2014 01:17 PM

Perempuan ini Ustazah Abby Abadi wannabe?